Warheads of pure Ass.

Ok, so I've made a few posts around ye old blogosphere on the topic of a possible nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, and I wanted to get the jist of them down here for my own future reference. My thoughts can be broken down into three major parts:

1. The likelihood of war.

   I'm clearly of the pessimistic opinion on this one. Although there are encouraging signs that both sides may be backing down from the precipice, I don't see any stability here. The militants in Kashmir are still there, ready to pop over to the Indian side of the line of control to leave their ever so thoughtful little gifts.

   The terrorist bombing of an Indian Army base is what started this latest brew-ha-ha, and the security setting hasn't really changed. Pakistan isn't going to crack down on these "freedom fighters", and even if it did, all it'll take is one splinter group to re-ignite the whole thing. This is a situation very similar to Israel's, and I think India (rightly) feels the only way to secure their part of Kashmir is to wipe out the terrorists on the Pakistan side.

   Of course, if they do this Pakistan will retaliate. This is nothing new, but tensions haven't been higher in years. Plus the risks are much more serious.

   Hindu Nationalists ala the BJP have been stoking the flames of sectarianism ever since Ayodha in the early 90's, with Pakistan as the great enemy. And we all know how charming the Islamic Fundies can be. There's a seething hatred that simmers across the border and its gonna go off sooner I fear, rather than later.
   




2. Casualties

   Again pessimism flows through my thoughts like a bad hot dog through my mom's old Shih Tzu. Steven Green linked to this story at the Guardian. It claims the CIA estimates around 12 million dead from the nuclear explosions alone. This number sounds completely reasonable to me.

   However, counting firestorms, fallout, breakdown in order and infrastructure, civil war, and resulting famine, this number will multiply many times. We're looking at 100 million dead folks, and the site of one of mankind's oldest civilizations is soon going to produce hundreds of million more in cancer victims over the next century. Even if my estimates are to high by a magnitude of 10, we're still looking at one of the single largest mass-slaughters in human history.

   This is bad, bad juju man.
   




3. Intervention

   So, I've thought about how bad it could get, and past a certain point of horror, it's really just mental masturbation. At this point we can only ask, is there anything the USA can actually do about all this?

   Short answer: probably not (pessimism rules supreme again!).

   For the long answer, I have seen promising signs from the diplomatic areas. I usually hold the word diplomacy in low regard, but with the USA, the Euro-Wankers and even the Russians telling both sides to cool it, things do seem to be calming over these last few days. But this just isn't a long term solution unless Kashmir gets resolved.

   Now as far as military intervention, I've had some radical thoughts on the matter. One of the things I've been reading in all the news reports is how both sides feel they have no alternative to a massive offensive nuclear force because they can't quickly take out their opponent's nukes. The USA is the the only power on the planet that does.

   Do we have the intelligence and attack capability to wipe out one side's (or both's) arsenal. I know it sounds far fetched, but could we maybe make some secret deal with the Indians (I assume they would have intelligence on where the weapons are) to take out Pakistan's weapons before they can be launched? Pakistan's defeat would certainly make our war on terror more difficult, but not as much as the chaos that would result from even a limited exchange. I don't think the administration would do it, and it's doubtful that they could even if they wanted to.

   It's Interventionist, Imperialistic, and dangerous. In any other situation, I would be completely opposed to such an act, but this could be a big, world-changing (for the worse) event, and we need to do something. Aside from the nightmarish death toll involved, a nuclear war on the sub-continent will destabilize the entire world. The war on terror could easily be lost in the background of global chaos. Taking out one side's arsenal is the only sane solution.
   

So, to recap: This is bad, I'm scared, and I don't think anything will be done until it's far too late… Sweet dreams world.

 

Posted by Captain Mojo at May 28, 2002 02:16 AM