Drudge links to a brief Times of India story on the Chinese manned space flight program. According to the article, the Pentagon, in its annual repot on the Chinese military (for a more general overview of the report, see this Washington Times article), predicts that China will attempt a manned launch within the next two years. It also briefly discusses the emerging Chinese anti-satellite capability. This isn't a groundbreaking story, as the Chinese space program has been building up for years, but continuing reports of China's military buildup are starting to convince me that we need to start worrying about the Peoples Liberation Army sooner rather than later.

In the past, I've been fairly critical of the PLA's troublemaking capability. China has, and continues to have, too many internal problems to threaten the rest of the world. Population pressures, coupled with a corrupt and inefficient government and an archaic physical infrastructure, make it very difficult for the Chinese to harness their nation's great potential, and it also makes it difficult to support a quality military.

So far, the PLA's conventional ground and naval forces haven't even posed a credible threat to puny Taiwain. And although the Chinese space program has already produced Missiles capable of reaching the mainland United States, their small nuclear arsenal can be successfully deterred with America's own nukes.
What I'm most interested in is this anti-satellite capability the Chinese seem to be acquiring (this two year old Space Daily article gives a decent overview of China's anti-satellite program).

I've long thought China's ambitions might pose a serious threat within the next 20-30 years, but space and ground based anti-Satellite technologies will be ready for prime time in 5-10 years. For the past two decades America's military might has grown increasingly dominant through the use of smaller, more powerful, and more accurate forces. These forces depend on the communication and intelligence resources of the military's satellite network. A serious Chinese anti-satellite capability would devastate the effectiveness of our forces (and those of our allies -- read Taiwan), and would go a long way to giving the large, low-tech, Chinese forces effective parity with our smaller, high-tech, military.

Is the US military doing anything to prepare for these future weapons? Not that I can see (is the US military effectively keeping secrets for once?). Of course, what we really need is a cheaper launch platform, keeping the threat of anti-satellite weapons at bay by having a ready supply of replacements ready for orbit. But NASA, which should be working on this kind of stuff, hasn't come up with a viable launch system in a quarter century, and from the looks of it, we'll be stuck with the current shuttle for several decades to come. And we have NO heavy lifting capacity that would allow us to easily get into higher orbit.

Ian at Fierce Highway always keeps a healthily suspicious eye focused on our friends across the pacific. Over the past few days he's had a couple of good posts on the possibility of a near-term Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the growing Chinese space capability. The combination of these two stories brings us to the real issue, as a Chinese attack on American satellites could seriously hamper any American response to an attack on Taiwan, as well as disabling our early warning defenses for any potential missile defense system.

China has no chance of matching America's conventional military forces without destroying the information resources that enable our current military supremacy. An assault on our satellite, telephone and data networks, while complicated, will certainly be within China's reach in the next few years. Within the next 50 years a collapsed / balkanized China is just as likely as an emerging superpower, and even if they do stay strong, It'll take decades for the Chinese to match our conventional capabilities. However, a space warfare capability, which could come online in as little as five years, could take the sharp out of America's sword, and give a decisive, if short term, advantage to the Chinese in any future conflict.

I don't think China will attack Taiwan any time in the next several years, it's still building its forces. But when they're ready, they'll move. While we're busy with the Terror War, the Chinese Communist Party will determine the next generation of its leadership, and we hope that this leadership will be more interested in peaceful economic expansion than violent military conquest, but it's too soon to tell. When the Middle East settles down, and the regimes of Iraq and Iran have been dealt with, the Chinese will still be there, looking hungrily at Taiwan and the rest of the Pacific. If the wrong people come to power, we need to be prepared.