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July 25, 2002
BIG ROCK

Through the Nando Times , NASA reports that a mile-long asteroid, called 2002 NT7, could strike the Earth on February 1, 2019. NASA isn't too worried: they estimate only a 1 in 250,000 chance of Earth impact.

I, however, am not easily mollified by such numbers. I have been to Las Vegas with Captain Mojo: his bad luck could kill us all. 1 in 250,00 is nothing to him. I honestly believe that he could play the lottery with reverse odds and lose. As much as I love to play poker against him, I do not want to be on this planet in 2019 if he’s still here.

In all seriousness, though, a mile-long asteroid moving 50 km/s on Earth-intercept is a big deal. 1.2 million megatons of energy released is as much as 6,000 Krakatoas. On the bright side, it’s estimated that the KT impactor (the dinosaur killer) was 10 miles wide, so NT7 is an order of magnitude smaller than the KT hammer. Still, 6,000 Krakatoas all at once would be decidedly unpleasant.

NASA says that they will have a much better idea where NT7 is going after they’ve watched it for a year. So, if, in a year, we realize this thing is actually coming down the pipe, what would we do to stop it? We would have fifteen years to figure something out: could we deflect it or break it up in time?

 

Posted by Commander Cornflake at July 25, 2002 05:42 PM | TrackBack

 

Comments

Dude, it isn't 1.2 megatons. It's 1.2 million megatons. That's 1200 gigatons, or 1.2 teratons.

Posted by: Bill Quick on July 25, 2002 05:54 PM

Being the good editor I am (ok, that's a lie), I fixed it. 6,000 Krakatoas was still accurate, however.

I thought the 1.2 million megatons was unwieldy too, but I guess the MT is the standard unit of big-assed-earth-destroying power, so why fight it.

Posted by: Captain Mojo on July 25, 2002 06:10 PM

Oh, and Cornflake is completely right on the luck thing. I lose $50 playing solitare. Las Vegas raped me the last time I was there (Reno at least bought me dinner and a drink first).

If I'm still alive in 2019 and this thing is anywhere near Earth, we're all in an awful lot of trouble.

Posted by: Captain Mojo on July 25, 2002 06:14 PM

Thanks for the fix there. Easy to get dyslexic when one is dealing with a million millions of anything.

Posted by: Commander Cornflake on July 25, 2002 06:16 PM

 

Comments disabled, due to this site running an ancient version of MT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Tycen Hopkins -- 2008