July 29, 2002
Ticking Clocks And Carbon Rods
Ian over at Fierce Highway reminds us why time is not on our side in regards to regime change in Iran:
There has been some growing conversation about the possibility that Iran may be experiencing some serious internal upheaval. Obviously, it would be a terrific development if there was an uprising against the repressive government of Iran, and a push for a more democratic state gained traction.
One of the larger problems I see, though, is that the time is running out for it to be a successful one. If there isn't a major effort mounted in the next two to three years, any opposition movements may suffer a setback from which it will take decades to recover.
The setback would come in the form of a nuclear reactor plant coming online in Bushehr. Iran's plant is already proposing tests, and could be ready for operation in under three years. And with the event of a nuclear power base, I fear that the current pseudo-religious regime in Iran would be given more grudging legitimacy and presense in international diplomacy.
He's right of course. Go
read the rest.
Posted by Captain Mojo at July 29, 2002 03:39 PM
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And there is always the machinations of our nEUtered allies, who have decided to throw their weight behind the illegitimate theocrats of Iran
But at least they're being consistent. The EUnochs have a proud tradition of bending over for the bad guys and taking it. I'd be shocked if they didn't.
Besides, what can they do? They’re all Social Democrats fer Chrissakes, which translates nicely into 'Merikin as incompetent do nothing bureaucrat-whores. We have nothing to fear from their spineless bumbling.
As Ian mentions, it's Russia's support for the Iranian regime that is most worrying. For the most part, the Ruskies, our former hated enemies, have been more supportive in this war than our long time "friends" in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels. However, we’re about to ignore the Bear big-time on Iraq, and we probably won’t stand idly by as Iran goes online with its reactors.
I hope we can work something out with the Russians, as our security concerns will run parallel for the foreseeable future, and we’ll increasingly need to buy oil from them as Arabia falls apart. As Dale Franks mentions in his latest TechCentral column, we’ve come a long way in building a new US-Russia understanding, but events in the next few years will almost certainly strain that relationship.
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